NFL Wildcard Chatter

[chrishansen]

Game 1
Browns at Texans

What’s the thoughts and opinions????

Flacco going back to Baltimore and having the former Browns play the current Browns will be gritty football and drama. NFL would love that if things work out

Hard not to like points and bunch turnovers this game based off stats. But this can be an ugly game via matchup.

Browns defense been hyped up all year. But are they really all that? Lots of shuffling due to injuries. Minus last game vs bengals the Browns surrender 20 Jets, 22 Texans, 17 Bears, 27 Jags, 36 Rams, 29 Broncos, past 6 games. Not great teams and awful QB play

Rematch vs Texans from 3 weeks ago but no Stroud at QB.

Texans are one of most targeted teams opposing TE. Flacco to Njoku has been money since Joe stepped in. Cooper also having nice chemistry with Joe

Browns up n down wins vs loss. Of late they have wins over Jets Texans Cards Jags Bears Steelers Ravens. Not that impressive. Losses vs Broncos Rams.

Texans played a far weaker schedule. The AFC South and NFC South with Cards and Broncos tosses in. Compared to AFC north and NFC West for Browns.

Browns top rank D 270 ypg
Browns 10th most td allowed
Browns top rank pass D 160 ypg
Browns 10th most pass td given up

Neither team runs the ball well. Browns are better but not great overall.

Opinion would be Browns play conservative vs a young Texans team and a 1st yr HC and QB. Texans at home have more pressure. Flacco will game manage and take selective shots. Not sure either team fears either offense. Tennis match volley back n forth for field position be my guess. Turnovers are hard to predict. Lower turnovers keep it tight and conservative.

Flacco has 2 or more TD in all 5 games. 300 yards each game. Alarming 8 ints though.

Stats can be misleading. Flacco looks great but not so great. Browns defense top rank D and top rank pass D. But surrender a lot of TDS . Browns worst ranked red zone Defense also!

Both teams played recently. Game was high scoring. Now both teams have familiarity and game tape. Usually equates to lower scoring. Despite stats supporting the over. Imo I see a tight playoff type atmosphere neither team being too aggressive. Which lowers turnovers possibilities. TO’s always subjective though. Just hard to see either offense being too aggressive and likely want to lean on defense.

Smells like more a ugly game imo...
23-20
23-16
20-19
20-16

Browns low scoring squeaker.

 

[MAGAking1]

Thought you got kidnapped.

Looking forward to your Playoff opinions including DFS

 

[skoalbandit33]

Nice write up. I am on the browns myself.

 

[exploited17]

Playoffs are a bit different but Browns haven't beaten anyone except Houston with Keenum at QB on the road by more than 2 points. Flacco on the road. Browns defense on the road.Give me points all day with Texans. I think a rookie can pull off 1 win at home and Stroud has been no ordinary rookie. Get blasted by Ravens next probably.

 

[chrishansen]

Playoffs are a bit different but Browns haven't beaten anyone except Houston with Keenum at QB on the road by more than 2 points. Flacco on the road. Browns defense on the road.Give me points all day with Texans. I think a rookie can pull off 1 win at home and Stroud has been no ordinary rookie. Get blasted by Ravens next probably.

Browns are a heavy heavy man to man D. Push close to 70%. If not top in league definitely top 3.

Stroud isn’t that good vs man. Definitely a weakness of his. Doesn’t mean he can’t ball out.


Browns
Jets
Giants
Chiefs
Patriots
Cowboys
Saints
Falcons

Heavy man teams I know of.

Colts
Jags

Heavy heavy zone teams

Stroud doesn’t turn ball over much at all. Vs saints jets falcons his stats are nothing great. Sun 60% and sub 200 yards vs them

I wouldn’t say it’s a automatic he struggles vs Browns man D. Just food for thought he has been more effective vs zone imo

 

[Avocado33]

Throw this in my thread bro

 

[chrishansen]

Game 2
Dolphins at Chiefs

1) Dolphins a hot mess banged up on D

2) Chiefs defense is good. But Tim Tebow effect is that any offense that is not great will produce a defense on papers stat wise that looks good. KC has been sub par on offense this year. Mid pack rushing and passing.

3) Both teams have great D cords. Vic is obviously familiar with KC during tenure in Denver. But the fish will be missing a chunk of players in defense

4) KC has a great OL especially Interior.

5) Baker mayfield has more passing TD than Patty. KC pass offense is all TE and RB dumps. WR core is anemic this year


Lots of talk about the weather. Cold as fuck. End of the day these are professionals. At some point they have played in cold ass weather. Dolphins went to buffalo playoff last year wounded and with Skylar Thompson at QB and a mid 30’s shootout broke out.

Imo the dolphins only chance is to press the offense and hit 30 points to win. Can’t rely on a battered defense. Doesn’t mean they can’t win 20-17. Coaching wise they will probably prioritize pace and aggressively attack.

Dolphins get Wad and Mose back but how healthy who knows.

Dolphins are not equipped to play physical teams.

Dolphins beat bet is 1v1 Ramsey vs Kielce and stack box with pressure and make the KC WR beat em. The amount of injuries on D imo will force Miami to do something different and gamble on D. I would but I’m not coaching.

KC should try and exploit the OL talent and Run while utilizing the RB pass game as an extension of the run. Miami is solid up front vs the run but 2nd level is walking wounded and an issue


*** KC has given up 21+ just twice all year GB 27 and Den 24

However, they bleed literally about 20 points per game

Miami is terrible on road and gives up points. However, more ya score the more others tend to score.

Miami again, struggles vs physical teams and better teams. Not sure they beat a team with winning record all year.

If I were coaching....

As Miami I push the pace and hope my defense can stay under 27. Aggressive and fast pace calling with a big mix of big play threats and quick Mia direction plays. And stick with the run to balance KC. On defense KC struggles with pressure. Despite a wounded defense with no edge players, gonna have to still be aggressive.

As KC I’m running heavy and passing RB all day to exploit the 2nd level. And opening up the passing attack. Cold or not both teams will need to be aggressive imo. KC seems happy with Defense and have an aggressive play caller in a Schwartz.

Aggressive on both sides means lots of plays and quick possessions and more possibilities of turnovers. And with turnovers often comes good field position and counter scoring opportunities. Aggressive offense vs Aggressive defense both sides can produce big plays and fireworks. Despite cold as balls and as long as it’s not windy, should see a better chance of points do due volatility. And the Under should be the majority due to weather. I’d imagine line drops some


KC beat Jax last year in playoffs in cold mid 20’s game 27-20.
KC beat Cin last year playoff in cold mid 20’s game 23-20.
Cin beat Buf last year in snow and low high 20’s 27-10.

Cold is cold. No difference in 20 and 5 degrees. Once it gets cold it’s just fucking cold. Points can be had in cold weather if not windy.

KC for as good as the defense is said to be with a top ppg D. Has given up..

Past 7 games...
12 to Chargers (Easton stick exhibition game)
17 to raiders (Rookie QB)
20 to raiders (Rookie QB)
17 to bengals (No burrow)
17 to patriots (2nd worst offense in NFL)
24 to Broncos
20 to Bills

Conspiracy angle is NFL definitely wants Taylor Swift to win. Which would set up KC at Buffalo if they win. And if Browns win then Flacco at Ravens in the former browns vs New browns bowl.

Dolphins will have no choice but to pump up point to win unless the wounded D plays outbits ass and Patty just sucks. Considering the Miami Offense is supposed to be back to almost full strength, Wads n Hill and all that speed may be an issue. Dolphins shock the Swifty cult and the new hit song in 4 months is another Taylor song about a breakup.

Going out on limb saying we see points.
27-22
26-20
26-23
27-23
26-24

 

[MAGAking1]

you still doing DFS Hansen?

 

[Bozzie]

Think one of the most interating matchups is Detroit vs LA.

Love the points here personally.

Whata got chris?

 

[Cheddar]

Value your opinion. I got in a confidence pool for the playoffs rating 1-13, Each round starts new. I'm thinking big points on SF and Baltimore next week, opinions?

 

[MAGAking1]

Value your opinion. I got in a confidence pool for the playoffs rating 1-13, Each round starts new. I'm thinking big points on SF and Baltimore next week, opinions?

You can probably get some nice leverage if you like dogs in other games.

Unless the crowd is sharp, I see an abnormal lean to the faves in NFL playoff confidence pools.

 

[Cheddar]

You can probably get some nice leverage if you like dogs in other games.

Unless the crowd is sharp, I see an abnormal lean to the faves in NFL playoff confidence pools.

It's a pool to just pick winners, no spread

 

[MAGAking1]

It's a pool to just pick winners, no spread

Yes, I understand
Im saying in confidence pools that I have played the field tends to take faves at a higher than normal rate when compared to expected win percentages.

 

[chrishansen]

Game 3
Steelers at Bills

Steelers Offense has been trash all year.

Josh Allen is Jekyll and Hyde.

Bills have been super hot down the stretch and beat some good teams.



Steelers +10 is a bunch for playoffs.

Cold in buffalo butvwho cares. Windy AF only thing to watch.

Personally no real lean this game anything. My gut tells me Josh Allen just goes full blown bulldozer mode. As he tends to do. Should extend drives and lean to points.

Steelers and Bills

 

[MAGAking1]

Speaking of weather , Rememer all those points in that Mia/Buffalo game that was cold and later started snowing 32-29 Bills

 

[Avocado33]

Cold is cold, but points can be had

Wind a bigger factor in these kinds of games

 

[slapshot]

Cold is cold, but points can be had

Wind a bigger factor in these kinds of games

True but which team will the NFL let deflate the balls

 

[chrishansen]

Continuing....

Expecting we see a large ground n pound both sides. If these winds truly hit 30mph then Bills have a bigger advantage

Allen is just too big too strong and makes too many backyard plays. Prone to being a complete idiot sometimes though. Allen’s legs and the fact the bulls are good in short yardage (Allen just sneaks left side every single time) and Steelers Suck at short yards. Allen can wing it in the wind vs Rudolph can’t not will Pitt have him unless a must. Bills should be able to run the more fluid offense as usual.

If this game is played in non windy conditions I see more a Bills 27-16 or 26-13 type game.

Steelers will be more one dimensional. And second level on defense is a concern.

Bills will be more effective if the game needs to be short yardage pass/run stuff. Bills second level is a concern also

I expect both teams play more in the box level 3 players. And the RB screen/dump game to be the chain movers.

We can probably eliminate the mid to longer FG attempts if weather is what it is. Thus more going for it scoring territory. Which equates for more possession time and field position flips. Bills are more liable and aggressive short yardage. It’s hard to trust the Steelers Offense especially in the red zone imo

My opinion is to expect a red zone type offense all game due to wether if windy. Therefore, looking at RZ...

RZ defense
Steelers 5th
Bills 13th

RZ Offense
Steelers 27th
Bills 5th

Both defense are weak at LB key for RZ. But both are strong in secondary with cb safety play. Steelers have huge TE Targets and so do Bills. But Bills QB play better equipped.

Steelers should be hard pressed on both tackles by Bills edge play.

Due to weather if as windy as projected the Bills better equipped to win. Turnovers are impossible to predict but due to more RZ type offense both teams imo, I say they are limited opportunities. Lots of clock chewing mentality and both coaches stay more tennis volley back n forth playing field position game. Possession time + punts tends to equal limited points.

10 is a lot
35 is super low.

Bills win something ugly...
20-9
21-10
20-7

 

[chrishansen]

Cold is cold, but points can be had

Wind a bigger factor in these kinds of games

Wind and Rain affect points the most

Snow and Cold actually help points

At end of the day 2 degrees or 32 degrees, at some point you can tell no difference unless wind kicks in. Cold is just cold at some point

Grown ass men and exceptional athletes. Most been there done that as far as cold.

 

[chrishansen]

Value your opinion. I got in a confidence pool for the playoffs rating 1-13, Each round starts new. I'm thinking big points on SF and Baltimore next week, opinions?

Thanks

FWIW I’m just talking out loud giving my opinions. Or how if approaching it coaching wise. I ain’t coaching though lol.